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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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