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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd